Berenberg’s Pickering sees a 30 % chance of a BOE rate hike in 2H, 2017

Kallum Pickering, Senior UK Economist, addresses the ultimate question on everyone’s mind - Will BOE hike rates to counter rising inflation? “One of the major surprises in the second half of 2017 could be a BOE rate hike”, says Pickering and adds “I see a 30% chance of a rate hike in H2 2017 and my base case scenario is the BOE stays on hold”. This segment is a complete package as Pickering discusses everything - from Sterling to wage growth to Brexit. Key points: Consumers should be able to sustain a strong level of consumption in 2017/2018 despite higher inflation Brexit thing is largely an issue of supply side shock UK Industrial production is likely to creep higher this year The UK trade deficit is likely to narrow this year BOE to hike rates in case of demand pull inflation and would look through transitory factors. #UK, #economy, #macro, #fundamentals, #industrialproduction, #tradebalance, #indicator, #inflation, #BOE, #ratehike, #centralbanks, #monetarypolicy, #Brexit, #politics