Wednesday 2nd May 2018.
TESLA RESULTS DAY FOR Q1
If you’re quick off the mark you’ll be listening to this before close of trading on Wednesday, in which case, a gold star to you! Tesla will announce their Q1 results after the bell on the 2nd If you’re listening to this afterwards, here’s a fun game to play, are any of these predictions even close.
But first an update on the Tesla Model 3 tracker: the estimate is 22,476 Model 3s produced at a rate of 2,324 per week. And a reminder of what was actually delivered in Q1, it was 11,730 Model S, 10,070 Model X and 8,180 Model 3.
As I mentioned yesterday on the show, I expect revenue to be USD3.2bn - 3.3bn based on all the various analysts and Tesla watchers.
For the Q1 loss, the common figure seems to be USD700m. Before the Model 3 their margins were comfortably in the Mid-20%’s whereas now, thanks to Model 3 investment, it’s under 15%.
I’m hoping they release separate data for Tesla Energy, with things like their massive battery pack installations now online. We may hear more about Tesla Semi deposits as that would be some good news to offset the Model 3 ramp being a little slower than guided.
The Q&A will be right around the time I usually write the news so let’s see how tomorrow goes.
APRIL EV SALES SCORECARD
Now we’re into May and InsideEVs have kicked off their April sales tracker for US sales of EVs. This is against a backdrop of global sales being off the charts recently, with the Nissan LEAF selling 10,000 a month, split between Japan, Europe equally and slightly fewer in USA. In fact the prices have been increased by Nissan, which was a frustration for anyone waiting for discount, the opposite happened. And on the SpeakEV forum one dealer posted a crazy PCP finance plan for silly money, massive deposit down.
April didn’t really follow the trend in the US however with LEAF sales down, from 1,500 in March to 1,171 in April. I’d love to see some guidance from Nissan on why that was, but I doubt we will. The inventory is increasing, apparently 2085 were on dealer lots on April 1st and 3,123 were with dealers by last weekend so let’s hope they shift them.
The biggest seller again will be Model 3, they reckon 3,875 deliveries, on top of 1,250 Model S and 1,025 Model X. And a total of almost 20,000 plug in deliveries for the month of April across the board.
LA GETS $36 MILLION GRANT FOR ELECTRIC BUSES
OK let’s start the news in LA and the Department of Transportation said on Monday they will award $36.1 million to purchase 112 battery electric buses. The cash comes from the California Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program and Los Angeles wants to be 100 percent zero-emission buses by 2030. That’s a wonderful goal, and remember cities like Schenzen have already migrated all their public buses over full BEV, almost 15,000 of them in one city alone. China is far ahead.
INFINITI ELECTRIC CARS TO OFFER AT LEAST 500KM RANGE
Moving to Infiniti and you heard on the show recently about plans to build a new electrified vehicle platform, well I have more detail now. And Infiniti's battery-electric carswill come with a base range of at least 500km.
Roland Krueger, Infiniti Brand President, suggested 311 miles (500km)would be the minimum range offered by cars on the new battery-based platform. He also suggested the platform can handle up to 300kW. Yes please. Want now.I don’t need now, I get the train to work and my weekend mileage happily covered off by a 30-40kWh pack but like a child NEEEEDS Ice cream, I NEEEED that car.
"In the end we realised we needed a platform that could hold an EV and e-Power and that made us decide to go for a completely new platform," Krueger told Automotive News, the platform eventually being the starting point for every single Infiniti car. The platform allows for one or two motors for AWD, plus of course Nissan has their e-power technology which is a hybrid without a plug, where the REX charges the battery, and the battery only ever drives the wheels.
MOTIV INTRODUCING COST-CUTTING BATTERY CONTROLLER FOR ITS EV CHASSIS
“Electric truck developer Motiv Power Systemshas developed a new unified battery controller that can cut costs, increase cargo capacity and speed up the build process for trucks based on its medium-duty EPIC chassis” reports Trucks.com. So rather than 6 controller needed if you had 6 battery packs, now you just need one. That saves money, streamlines build, allow more flexibility about this body can be fitted on it, and it also saves space which makes room for even more cells. Whilst Tesla get the headlines for their Semi, it shows plenty of others are working on trucks and even last mile solutions.
Motiv have called this chassis the EPIC. “Motiv’s goal with the EPIC was to create a simple, reliable and cost-effective all-electric chassis capable of meeting the varying needs of medium-duty fleet operators while streamlining the build process” says Jim Castelaz, Motiv’s founder and chief executive.
WINNEBAGO LAUNCHES ALL-ELECTRIC/ZERO-EMISSION COMMERCIAL VEHICLE PLATFORM WGO
So who could use that platform? Let’s not leave you hanging! Winnebago – makers of recreational vehicles or RVs - is launching their all-electric platform their Specialty Vehicles Division. Along Motiv who will develop and supply the electric-powered chassis. As part of the venture together Winnebago will invest in Motiv. How long until we see an all-electric RV.
For now it will be their commercial trucks division though. And from their website, I’ve spent far too long on winnebagoind.com today looking at RVs, they say: “Available on 33' and 38' Class A commercial platforms, this 100% Battery Electric Vehicle qualifies for many federal, state and local incentives for vehicle purchase and infrastructure upgrades, including charging stations. Depending on interior energy demands, this ground- breaking Class A coach delivers 85 to 125 miles on a full charge, making it ideal for short-range, fixed-base applications.”
https://winnebagoind.com/products/specialty-vehicles/2019/commercial-shells/overview
AUSTRALIA’S FIRST ELECTRIC CAR TO BE LAUNCHED IN INVERELL
“Australia’s first fully electric light commercial vehicle, the ACE-EV, will be officially launched at the National Transport Museum this weekend as part of Inverell’s inaugural electric vehicle expo” says Inverell Times website.
ACE-EV believes that on the world stage, Australians are lagging behind in the purchase of electric cars. In 2017, Australians bought 1,680 EVs, of the 2,000,000 now on the roads in total worldwide, while China purchased 680,000 in 2017 alone.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jun/07/electric-cars-sales-2-million-worldwide-global-sales
BENTLEY MULSANNE SUCCESSOR MIGHT GO ELECTRIC ROUTE
OK think of a car – now double it. And double it again. And you’ll get to the size of the Bentley Mulsanne, part car, and part mobile sitting room.
There will be an updated one in the early 2020s and Bentley still haven’t committed to a drivetrain, which leaves the door open for an electric version. If they can be sure to get a large enough pack in, and fast charging, for the demands of high end buyers (whether or not they actually need either) then electric power would be the ultimate way to waft along the roads in silence.
ELECTRIC CARS ARE CREATING A NEW KIND OF CAR ENTHUSIAST
You and I not normal, says Autotrader, rather EV enthusiasts are an emerging breed of car AutoTrader says we’d never normally care about cars, which is a bit rubbish, I’ve loved cars since I could put posters on my bedroom wall.
However Eric Brandt says: “electrified cars are attracting nerds like my friends who suddenly become very interested in cars when they get closer to being computers that can take you to work. They want the latest technology -- including propulsion technology. They want the biggest possible infotainment screen that can do the most possible things. They want to see the stats on exactly how far they can go on how much electricity they still have, and they want to know down to the minute when their car will be done charging.”
I’d love to spread the word about electric cars so, if you can, share this somebody who might be interested.
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